Messages from an Election Poll & The Impact of Negative Campaigning

I have had a hard time in the last few weeks deciding whether I am voting Democratic based on positive feelings for Obama/Biden or negative feelings for McCain/Palin. I've also wondered how the rest of the electorate feels.  Fortunately, I have just seen a poll by Hart/Newhouse, done on October 17, 2008, for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, that helps me figure out where others are.

Rethinking Bush

Before getting to the 2008 choice, the electorate is truly negative (at last) about the Bush Administration.  Of course, we knew that, but look at the numbers -- a comparison of today versus Bush's high after September 11, 2001.

    -- On the question of whether Bush is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track, 78 percent said he was off on the wrong track (compared to 11 percent in Sept., 2001)
    -- On the job Bush is doing, 66 percent disapproval today (versus 7 percent in Sept., 2001)
    -- On Bush's handling of the economy, it was even worse -- 75 percent disapproval today (versus 25 percent in Sept., 2001)

Oddly, the Congress comes in for an even worse rating, with a 79 percent disapproval rating today.

Feelings Toward Candidates and Parties

Respondents were asked to rate their feelings today toward Bush, McCain, Obama, Biden, Palin, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party.  I'm providing only the extremes -- very positive or very negative.

                                          Very Positive  Very Negative

Bush                                          11                 45
McCain                                       19                 21
Obama                                       37                23
Biden                                         28                 14
Palin                                          23                 34
Democratic Party                         16                 21
Republican Party                         11                 25

What do these results tell us?  Twice as many people are very positive about Obama versus McCain; about equal numbers are very negative about the two.  Biden is slightly ahead of Palin in positives; Palin is way ahead of Biden in negatives.  Finally.  Neither party is well-loved, but the Democrats are doing slightly better than the Republicans.

Or, to put it simply, Obama has been a strong positive, Palin a strong negative.

How People Will Vote -- The Impact of Negative Campaigning

As of October 17, 2008, 51 percent of respondents respond that they will vote for Obama, 41 percent, for McCain (about 1 percent are leaning toward either Obama or McCain, 4 percent still undecided, and the rest will vote for other candidates).

Given that Obama elicits much stronger positive feelings than McCain, why isn't his vote lead any higher than 51 percent?  Are voters, who have already decided, voting more FOR one candidate or AGAINST another?
    Among McCain voters,  FOR McCain     46       AGAINST  Obama  27
    Among Obama voters,  FOR Obama    67       AGAINST McCain     8

The FOR Obama and AGAINST Obama are both higher than for McCain.  The FOR Obama is clearly a response to his charisma, youth, message of change.  The AGAINST Obama reveals either racism or the impact of negative campaigning by McCain's campaign.  (I suspect negative campaigning is having more of an effect than racism.  A scary number of voters I canvassed in Nevada told me Obama was a Muslim or terrorist.)

For that reason -- McCain's negative campaigning -- more than any other, I, unlike most other voters, am voting more AGAINST McCain than FOR Obama (although I remain incredibly positive about Obama).